Find Your State’s Analytical Tools to Build Fiscal Sustainability

Database of long-term budget assessments and budget stress tests

For state government budgets to stay on a sustainable path, policymakers must maintain a long-term perspective, informed by high-quality data and analysis. In a 2023 report, “Tools for Sustainable State Budgeting,” The Pew Charitable Trusts identified and defined two analytical tools—long-term budget assessments and budget stress tests—that can help policymakers ensure that today’s revenue and spending decisions do not cause budget problems in the future.

Based on that report, Pew created a database to track the long-term budget assessments and budget stress tests conducted by states throughout the country since 2018. (See Figure 1.) Lawmakers can use the information and reports collected here to find the latest analysis of their state’s fiscal outlook; study authors can learn from studies published in other states to develop or refine their own analyses; and researchers can glean insights on states’ fiscal conditions.

Share

Source: Pew analysis of state documents and information provided by state officials

The database comprises all long-term assessments and stress tests published since July 1, 2023. Analyses issued before that date are also included if they are the most recent study of their type produced by a state. For example, a New York stress test from 2021 is included because New York has not published a stress test since.

Pew plans to update the database at least twice a year and welcomes suggestions of analyses that may meet its definitions of long-term budget assessments and budget stress tests but are not currently included.

Budget Sustainability Tools Database

Filters

Results: 1 - 10 of 43
Date

General Fund Consensus Revenue Estimate 

Published: August 2024

Office: Consensus Revenue Estimating Group

Summary/Excerpt: "Still, the [low oil price] scenario results in general fund revenues that would be about $1.7 billion below the consensus forecast in FY26."

Page Numbers/Section: 10-13

Report homepage 

Effect of the 2024 Legislative Program on the Financial Condition of the State 

Published: June 2024

Office: Department of Legislative Services

Summary/Excerpt: "The structural deficit increases to $1.7 billion in fiscal 2026 and reaches over $3 billion by fiscal 2028."

Page Numbers/Section: Full document

Report homepage 

2027 Biennium Financial Outlook 

Published: June 2024

Office: Legislative Fiscal Division

Summary/Excerpt: "State reserve funds are full and the state general fund has significant long-term positive structural position."

Page Numbers/Section: Full document

Report homepage 

The 2024-25 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook 

Published: May 2024

Office: Legislative Analyst's Office

Summary/Excerpt: "While the budget is undeniably on better fiscal footing...there are some key fiscal risks to the budget’s out-year condition."

Page Numbers/Section: Full document

Report homepage 

FY 2025 NYS Enacted Budget Financial Plan 

Published: May 2024

Office: Division of the Budget

Summary/Excerpt: "The gaps in the outyears are now projected at $2.3 billion in FY 2026, $4.3 billion in FY 2027, and $7.3 billion in FY 2028."

Page Numbers/Section: Full document

Report homepage 

Three-Year Budget Forecast FY 2025 - FY 2027 

Published: April 2024

Office: Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability

Summary/Excerpt: "The State of Illinois’ financial condition has improved considerably in the past few years, [h]owever looking into FY 2025 and beyond, economic and tax revenue forecasts remain murky as the economy is expected to continue to slow."

Page Numbers/Section: Full document

Report homepage 

The 90 Day Report: A Review of the 2024 Legislative Session 

Published: April 2024

Office: Department of Legislative Services

Summary/Excerpt: "The structural deficit increases to $1.7 billion in fiscal 2026 and reaches over $3 billion by fiscal 2028."

Page Numbers/Section: Parts A and B

Report homepage 

Budget and Economic Forecast 

Published: February 2024

Office: Minnesota Management and Budget

Summary/Excerpt: "The higher revenue forecast throughout the FY 2024-27 planning horizon results in improvement to the structural budgetary balance but spending is still projected to exceed revenue through FY 2027."

Page Numbers/Section: Full document

Report homepage 

Legislative Fiscal Analyst's Overview of the Governor's Request 

Published: January 2024

Office: Legislative Finance Division

Summary/Excerpt: "Alaska still has a structural budget deficit: if all spending statutes are followed, the State would have a substantial budget deficit at expected long-term revenue."

Page Numbers/Section: 1-23

Report homepage 

FY 2025 JLBC Baseline with Executive Comparison 

Published: January 2024

Office: Joint Legislative Budget Committee

Summary/Excerpt: "The shortfalls continue through FY 27, the last year of the 3-year budget window."

Page Numbers/Section: Full document

Report homepage 

Getty Images
Getty Images
Report

Tools for Sustainable State Budgeting

Quick View
Report

Responsible state fiscal policy requires more than just balancing the current year’s budget. It must also include ensuring that the budget is on a sustainable path. Otherwise, policymakers cannot have the lasting impact they hope for: They may act to improve state services or cut taxes only to have to scale those efforts back later. This risk is especially high in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. Record budget surpluses, driven largely by federal pandemic aid, empowered states to adopt historically large tax cuts and spending increases from 2021 to 2023, investments that many state leaders hope to build on in coming years.

What is Budget Stress Testing?
What is Budget Stress Testing?
Article

States Should Measure Budget Risks

Quick View
Article

Responsible state fiscal policy requires more than just balancing the current year’s budget. It must also include ensuring that the budget is on a sustainable path. Otherwise, policymakers cannot have the lasting impact they hope for: They may act to improve state services or cut taxes only to have to scale those efforts back later. This risk is especially high in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic.